Posts Tagged ‘#trump’

Trump and Bild: Merkel’s Poisoned Chalice

January 16, 2017

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Trump Lays it Out for Germany’s Best Selling Tabloid

The news hit the stands (online) Monday night at 23:00 and has been burning it up on the air waves and the internet since then. Everyone has an opinion it seems on a German publication’s first interview with the president-elect. It was conducted by Bild Zeitung, Germany’s biggest tabloid, a brilliant pick to reach out to as many everyday Germans as possible. Editor-in-Chief Kai Diekmann did a solid job, asked the right questions and drew the right conclusions, among them:

1.) Trump is breaking all the rules,  diplomatic,political  and otherwise, and will continue to do so for as long as he governs.

2.) He’s rude, confrontational and annoyingly honest – which can actually be an asset in solving encrusted conflicts.

3.) Trump is the biggest political experiment since the end of the Cold War.

And then the kicker – Trump might just be the first president to change the office more than having the office change him.

It’s a good bet: after redefining campaigning, expect Trump to reshape the Oval Office.Think Twitter, cabinet picks he knew would disagree with him, and the call he repeated in his Bild interview with Diekmann to roll back NATO and his dire prediction for a demise of the EU.

German Politicos Bump Along in the Fog

I listened to a top CDU politician Norbert Röttgen on Deutschlandfunk giving his response to the Trump interview  after dropping the kids off at school. He’s very bright but continues to analyze Trump from a far too German perspective. He remains confused about Trump’s intentions, and consternated that  Trump thinks mainly of American jobs and America’s borders, deems NATO obsolete and thinks Merkel’s decision to allow in hundreds of thousands of migrants and refugees “probably one of the worst if not the worst decision in the country’s history.”   He shouldn’t be.  Theses are positions, sometimes word for word,  Trump laid out countless times in his campaign speeches.

They also represent a deep continuum in American Isolationism.  And – like we’ve seen in the “Mother Country” Britain –  isolationist populism erupts when America’s working and middle classes feel endangered by changes that pose a threat to the nation’s character and customs. Terrorism, radical Islam and  mass migration top that list, although the rise of artificial intelligence and an economic system that mainly serves the hyper-rich as Oxfam just pointed out, are right up there.

Wait and See is the Worst Strategy with Trump

Other top politicians here have not been doing the character study of  Trump they should have. In response to his plan to slap steep 35 % tariffs on BMW, SPD Vice-Chancellor Sigmar  Gabriel says just wait and see what comes out of all this.

Foreign Minister frank Walter Steinmeier is taking a similar approach when it comes to Trump’s intentions of changing NATO. Both are banking on Trump running into opposition in Congress on getting protectionist and isolationist  legislation pushed through. In doing so they are not taking three key factors into consideration:

1.) Many of the voters who put Trump in office  are among the bottom 50 % of Americans who’ve seen no income growth  for 30 years while the top 1 % has seen a 300 % increase in wealth. They are ripe for protectionism, not more globalism. Congress will mirror that.

2.) Donald Trump is the Ultimate Deal Maker. He is also a driven individual who works tirelessly to achieve his goals. His ego will allow for nothing less than total success and victory.

3.)  European nations started closing borders as soon as the migrant crisis unfolded. It led to new  alliances  in the form of  a revitalized Visegrad Group.  The dynamic of crisis led  Russia to  decouple form the West and  seek an invigorated Shanghai Group.   America has seen that Europe’s East and Putin’s Russia are successful in achieving their goals via national and regional solutions as opposed to trans-national agreements and  is opting for the same path.

Instead of playing defense and  preparing to react to Trump initiatives, Germany and the EU needs to move forward with it’s own agenda on migration and jobs. If  Europe does not act with athletic confidence in key policy areas, the EU  will be steamrollered by a newly assertive America on everything from trade to migration to security.

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Expect Much More of the Same – Not Less

 “America First” has been the historic norm for America, not the  corporate globalism and interventionism of the last 70 years. That is what’s behind Trump’s own consternation about how Merkel responded to the migrant crisis that unfolded in Europe in 2015.  A similar migrant situation has been in the making  on America’s southern border .It was Trump’s promise to “build the wall”, along with bringing home jobs, that galvanized the conservative base and got out undecided and first-time voters.

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Photo :By P. Heinlein [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Safe Zones for Syria – Why Not for Somalia ? The Poisoned Chalice

Talking to Bild, Trump laid out a plan for “safe zones” in Syria funded by oil sheiks   to shelter refugees until they can return home.  He said that was what Germany should have done as as the crisis unfolded. But in 2015, Germany  did not have the  military and logistical capacity for such a mission.  It  still doesn’t.  Could German diplomacy though have  cobbled together an alliance to create safe zones in Syria?  And if militarily protected safe zones could have been an alternative for Syria in 2015, are they an option today?  Are  “safe zones”  perhaps the best solution for all involved in Iraq, Somalia and Eritrea as well?  Those countries are sending tens of  thousands of refugees to Europe monthly.  Tragically, all too many die making the risky voyage to Europe.

Those  questions are the poisoned chalice that Donald  Trump has extended to Angela Merkel, her coalition and the next government as well. Trump’s delivery of  his   critique of  Angela’s  Merkel’s claim there was  no other option at that time than to allow  the refugees in, via Bild as the election seasons here kicks off, shows just how much of a political operator he is.

No wonder Angela Merkel has chosen to play down the Bild interview. But will her political opponents inside  and outside of the coalition do the same for very long?   Just as the Bild interview was making the rounds, so too was the news that a veteran CDU grand dame had quit the party , condemning Merkel for  violating EU law  with her unilateral decision to suspend the Dublin accords,  a move that legalised the influx of refugees into Europe. The debate over migration and what transpired at Europe’s borders in 2015  is set to shape the 2017 German election.

Since Merkel has chosen to run for a fourth term as Chancellor, her decision not to engage Trump,  but to avoid him at every turn, and not  to rebut his criticism is a misstep. If she wants to win, she will need to explain to voters why her decision in 2015 was the right one and why her current migration policy is the best way forward.

As I have previously mentioned, instead of  playing “wait and see” or  taking Trump’s bait,  Merkel’s  adjutants should be down at Trump Tower glad-handing every palm they can press. Her success or failure at the polls could depend on her relations with Germany’s most important ally.

All Copyrights ©Brian Thomas 2017

Fair Use: Please feel free to share, quote or use in any way this article provided you give Brian Thomas credit as its author. Thanks! If you like what you’ve found here, check my Youtube Channel : http://bit.ly/2eolQZh

Five Things Angela Merkel Can Do Before Inauguration Day To Warm Ties With the New Washington

January 12, 2017

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Photo Credit: “DSC01763” © 2012 Maxence, Flickr | CC-BY | via Wylio

Germany and its political leaders may never learn to love Donald Trump. But they will have to learn to live with him, and to work with him over the next four, or even eight, years.

So why not get of to a good start?

Here’s five things Berlin can do today to get off on the right foot with the new administration.

Call the Point Man

Angela Merkel’s Press Spokesman Stefan Seibert can send a note of congratulations to Sean Spicer, Donald Trump’s new Press Secretary, his counterpart in the White House, for being named to the post.

If he already did so, why not send a nice follow-up and underscore all the things they have in common? They’re both Catholics, married with children, familiar with the corridors of power and share a knack for working with high power bosses with thick agendas.

Stefan should invite Sean to Berlin for a beer and get those back channels of communication lubricated with some good German hops. I’m leaving their twitter addresses here and here in case either of them stumble on this and take up the idea on a whim. You never know …

Jared Packs a Punch

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© 2006 Hamed Saber, Flickr | CC-BY | via Wylio

Merkel’s Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier should do a Skype hook up with Jared Kuschner. After investing so much time in getting the Iran nuclear done and dusted, the German Foreign Minister can get familiar with Trump’s son-in-law  and Special White House advisor. Kushner has known Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from childhood. (His father has cut the kind of deals in Israel his billionaire son has put together in New York.)

Maybe Jared can help  Steinmeier save the Iran Deal from the trash can? Trump has promised to tear it up and Kushner is set to be his “go-to-guy “for Israel.

Steinmeier will, of course, first have to convince Jared he didn’t mean it when he intervened in the US election (without hacking or fake news) and said the prospect of  a Trump presidency was frightening and likened then candidate now president-elect Trump  to a hate preacher.  Hans-Dieter Genscher is rolling in his grave.

As Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has discovered – even knowing a friend of Jared can pay off. One such friend just told  Abbas Trump is serious about recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The Jordanian government is calling Jerusalem a “Red Line”. I wonder how Saudi Arabia feels? Or Islamic State? Did I just repeat myself?

Crank up the Skype Steini and get going. There’s a lot to do before becoming German president. Are you training up a replacement? Remind him that foresight is is the hallmark of diplomatic greatness.

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Past Support means Future Gains

German intelligence services need the NSA to work effectively. That’s according to no-one less than the SPD’s Thomas Oppermann. The Social Democrat grandee was once very busy with the parliamentary committee that looked into the NSA spying scandals in 2015.

Mr.Oppermann might want to consider a quick flight to New York to check in with Dan Coates, the man earmarked by Trump to oversee America’s vast, mulit-agency intelligence network. Coates is a former U.S. ambassador to Germany and under Bush the Younger tried, but failed, to get the Schroeder-Fischer Duo to kit up German soldiers and join in the Fake News fueled War Against Iraq.

Oppermann might want to leave out that German intell got it right about Iraqi WMD’s in 2003. Instead he can focus on how Angela Merkel backed George W. Bush in the run up to the war. That fact can be a bridge builder with Coates, who I’m sure hasn’t forgotten Merkel’s support from the opposition benches when most Germans opposed the war.

Saying You’re Sorry In the National Interest

Angela Merkel has made pre-inauguration comments indicating Europe should get used to acting on the world stage without the U.S. The statement is a political earthquake that has yet to send shock waves. No post-war president has ever called the trans-Atlantic Partnership into question. What Europe is she talking about ? Britain is going, and France, Holland and Italy want either out or a looser EU after elections this year.  And Spain and Belgium are both still facing secessionists. There’s always Luxembourg. They have banks.

Instead of warning Trump on protectionism, she should be should somehow quickly make amends for her cool response to  Donald Trump’s shock victory.  The reintegrative shaming  she subjected him to will not work with Donald Trump. It’s a red bandana to a bull. Think Pamplona. A snappy apology would demonstrate strength of character,magnanimity and a desire to get down to work in the national interest. Trump has forgiven far worse slights and after all is a businessman. Simple flowers will do. No red roses.

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In Vino Veritas

Host an Open House (with open bar) for Europe’s Expat American Deplorables at the Chancellery. They were hard to find during the campaign season, but I have a feeling we’re going to learn that places like Berlin, Munich and Frankfurt are actually crawling with Trump Republicans.  Especially now that the MAGA forces are about to march into the White House in a few days.

If these recommendations for Berlin  start and end with alcohol, that’s because getting US-German relations back to where they were under Obama might just require a stiff drink.  Especially  with a new poll showing Germans more disenchanted than ever with the US after the Trump victory.

Thinking about it twice, maybe save the drink for afterwards. No use conmplicating an already difficult situation.

All copyrights Brian Thomas 2017

Fair Use: Please feel free  to share, quote or use in any way this article provided you give Brian Thomas credit as its author. Thanks!

Does Germany Need a 1st Amendment ? Censorship’s Nose is under the Tent

November 26, 2016

It looks like Germany – and the EU – needs a First Amendment.

And by the pace of developments – it can’t come quickly enough.

Following the Trumpquake and the Brexnami, the political establishment wants to contain other political upheavals. They want to hold on to power. Upstart parties and movements have been articulating the unhappiness of large segments of the electorate. The anger began with the bank bailouts two legislative cycles ago in 2008. It’s been simmering since then.

Many politicians and their adherents in the media are going down the wrong path.

They’re supporting the most desperate and fear driven response possible: the censorship of ideas they deem threatening and the technologies that deliver them. By doing so they will discredit themselves and undermine our democracies.

And they will fail for all their ardor.

Fake News – Schamke News – Who cares?

With a weather eye towards upcoming elections, and with a chill in her back from the US vote, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced to the Bundestag this week it’s time to debate government regulations for the New Media. Many of us hoped she would be the „torch bearer“ for the „European values“. It looks like her torch is dimming.

More than two centuries ago – America had a massive debate on free speech. It built on another much older debate in Europe that included Martin Luther.  It’s fruit was the US Constitution. The oldest and best guarantor of freedom of its kind on the planet.

A quick reminder: The fundamental values are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

Liberty is enshrined in the 1st Amendment. It’s the first for a reason. Here it is:

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.”

„No laws“ means no laws.

I’m Not Feeling the Freedom

Without a completely free press, there can be no other freedoms. That in a nutshell, powered the American, the French, and the German Revolution(s). It is still powering them today from Hong Kong to Turkey.

The threat to free speech in Europe today does not come from an Erdogan type of edict following mass arrests of opponents. It’s coming in the form of administrative directives from Brussels and government lawsuits at the local and state levels.

It has already started.

Brussels Overreacts – A Sign of Weakness, not Strength

Two disturbing events have taken place in Brussels in the last weeks. One of them is the October recommendation by the European Council to the British press which especially upbraids popular mass market tabloids in the UK for „excessively“ associating terror attacks with Muslims. You can agree or not agree with that. What’s alarming is the power and animus of the administrative organs churning out recommendations on „hate speech“. No one, of course, likes hate. We all want love. But associating „hate“ with speech is a mistake. You can outlaw hate as much as you can outlaw love. It is Orwellian. And look at the practical side. Who decides what constitutes „hate speech“? And the penalties for its use? Whoever is doing it right now in Brussels remains anonymous for most of us. Can you name the individuals responsible for determining what you can say without possible state sanctions?

I can’t. And I work in the „word and ideas“ sector.

These positions are too important not to be elected on a local level. And that’s the problem. Without a 1st Amendment, politicians will create a distant and huge administrative unit to „protect“ speech, which quickly becomes subject to a definition in terms of acceptability. It’s an old game and must be ended lest we destroy what made „The West“ an envied success.

It’s time for Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights to be replaced by the First Amendment.

Failed Templates

The Council of Europe is putting itself in the company of other abysmal failed Councils.

For starters: the Sharia Council will see you stoned to death for blasphemy in a number of Islamic jurisdictions. All for a good cause, of course, heaven. It’s a lot loftier than the „public safety“ the EU is pushing for.

In China, criticizing the political elite or exposing their business, plans will activate the „People’s Council“. “Equality” is the good cause in Beijing. I like heaven better. „Speech violations“ there will make you eligible for slave labor in a smartphone factory where  „suicide nets“ are part of the fashion landscape.

Just ask Raif Badawi in Saudi Arabia or Ai Weiwei in China about free speech and Councils. I’ll wager they’d prefer a vigorously defended 1st Amendment.

Why do we rally to their defense and not jealously guard our own freedoms? We need to do both. Or we’re hypocrites.

The second disappointing and hypocritical case from Brussels is from the EU parliament. It has voted for a non-binding resolution to clamp down on Russian English news outlets like RT.

Here’s their assessment and the EU’s remedy:

Propaganda pressure on the EU from Russia and Islamist terrorist groups is growing, MEPs warn in a resolution voted on Wednesday. It seeks to distort the truth, incite fear, provoke doubt and divide the EU. To counteract anti-EU campaigns, MEPs suggest reinforcing the EU’s tiny “strategic communication” task force and investing more in awareness raising, education, online and local media, investigative journalism and information literacy.

(More on that here : http://bit.ly/2fqP0KY)

The main goal here is shut down RT – the popular Russian news site, pure and simple. I’m not here to break a lance for RT. I am here to protect my and your right to listen to what they have to say. Or what anybody has to say about anything.

Here’s a „values“ quote we need to pass around again. Forgetting it is of too great a consequence:

„I may not agree with what you have to say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.“ A little Voltaire with your coffee.

By the way, no human, no „body“ gives me that right. I was born with it. That’s what’s meant by „inalienable“. It’s the fruit of the Enlightenment and puts all your holy „Councils“ in the shadows.

Today we take Ankara – tomorrow Berlin

The Chancellor’ s call for a debate on regulating speech is wrong on its face and its timing is catastrophic.  With the war against free speech intensifying from Turkey and the Islamic world to China and beyond – it’s time to for Europe and its political leadership, NGO’s and civil society to stand up for free speech. Germany and Europe need a First Amendment.  Compare it to what the European Council has to offer. It’s too long to quote (surprised?) so I’ve posted below.

The Path to freedom

The camel has stuck its nose under the tent. It’s time to deal with the beast. We need a swift and rigorous debate about introducing a 1st Amendment in Europe at the EU and national levels.

Without one, we risk sinking back into the darkness Europe has known all too often. Oppression thrives in the fine print and in lofty goals. The 1st Amendment is overdue in Europe. I challenge anyone to convince me otherwise.

 

In my next post, I explore how Mark Zuckerberg’s trip to China is bad for freedom, 1st Amendment rights and the small and medium size businesses that depend on free speech to thrive.

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Article 10 : http://bit.ly/1foTq0D